Is the coin really fair?
Combinatorics · proposed by @Ale712
A coin is selected according to one of two equally likely hypotheses:
• $H_0$: The coin is fair, so the probability of heads is exactly $p=1/2$.
• $H_1$: The probability of heads $p$ is initially unknown and follows a uniform distribution on $[0,1]$.
The coin is tossed independently six times, conditional on its value of $p$, and exactly three heads and three tails are observed.
Using Bayes' theorem, determine the posterior probability $\mathbb P(H_0\mid E)$, where $E$ denotes the observed event.
If this probability is expressed as a fraction $\alpha/\beta$ where $\alpha$ and $\beta$ are coprime positive integers, what is the value of $\beta$?